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The Duckbill Group

2020 State of Public Cloud Analysis

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In May 2020, The Duckbill Group was commissioned for an assessment of the major cloud infrastructure providers with a special emphasis on the future of GCP.

Before starting this analysis, we believed GCP was in a close third place, slightly behind Azure, among the big three public cloud providers. Our general feelings on GCP prior to this report could best be described as ambivalent. However, during the course of our research, we became more and more convinced that relying on GCP for a business of significant size (more than $50mm/yr in cloud spend) is ill-advised. We now see GCP as being in a far-distant third place.

Likewise, we came away with a new-found appreciation for Azure, which has turned out to be a much more serious contender than we originally believed. Our opinion of AWS was likewise strengthened, as our research led us to appreciate nuances of their market strategy and the fundamental uniqueness of their control plane and network infrastructure.

This analysis is not driven by mountains of data, but rather is based on conversations with cloud customers. There will be no Magic Quadrants here. We are not analysts, but rather, consultants with deep expertise in cloud infrastructure.

What you will find is our opinion and perspective backed by our deep experience in the market.


What’s Covered in the Analysis

In this Analysis, you’ll learn more about the market shape for cloud providers, our insights into developer community, potential market shifts & risks, and our picture of GCP in 2025.

Market Shape

  • Will there be a rise in leading regional cloud providers?
  • Projected market share and analysis of major cloud providers in 2025
  • Why companies spending $100m/yr on cloud are spending 60% of it on EC2
  • Why are CDN services at AWS, Azure, and GCP so inferior to Akamai and Fastly?

Future of GCP

  • Why Google’s product managers hate me
  • The three potential futures for GCP–and none of them good
  • How Alphabet is throwing away its best opportunity for cloud success

Market Shifts & Risks

  • COVID-induced trends to pay attention to
  • The impact of COVID-19 on cloud providers
  • The biggest risks to AWS, Azure, and GCP’s future

Developer Community

  • The problem of capability discovery in AWS
  • Why Azure might be #1 in developer experience
  • Why developer portals hurt more than they help